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This Newsletter is published quarterly for the WFEO Committee on Engineering and Environment (CEE) at 
The Institution of Engineers (India), 8, Gokhale Road, Calcutta 700 020, 
Phone: 223-8311/14/15/16, 223-8333/34, 223-3155, Fax: 91 33 223-8345, 91 61532911, 
E-mail: intnl@ieindia.org ; gplal@hotmail.com 
Secretary & Director General : Cdr. A K Poothia, IN (Retd.)

Vol 26 No 4 DEC 2005 Editor: Mr B. J. Vasoya

Editorial ... 1               

WFEO Committees, Executive Council and General Assembly Meet in San Juan, Puerto Rico ... 2 

A detailed Account of India’s Participation at San Juan, Puerto rico ... 3

Global Climate Change ........     4 

World Council of Civil Engineers Created ..... 5  

We Look Forward to WEC 2008               ... 6

  At The Helm ... 7 

Acronyms commonly used ... 4

 

 

                  Announcement : WEC       Forthcoming Conference    Committee 

Global Climate Change     

Climate is the average pattern of weather over the long term. The earth's climate has warmed and cooled for millions of years, since long before we appeared on the scene. There's no doubt that the climate is growing warmer currently; indications of that change are all around us.

Global Climate Change?

We know that the earth has become warmer over the last century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group established by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), reports that the average surface temperature of the earth has increased during the twentieth century by about 0.60+ 0.2"C. (The 0.2"C means that the increase might be as small as 0.4°C or as great as 0.8°C.) This may seem like a small shift, but although regional and short-term temperatures do fluctuate over a wide range, global temperatures are generally quite stable. In fact, the difference between today's average global temperature and the average global temperature during the last Ice Age is only about 5 degrees C. Indeed, it's warmer today around the world than at any time during the past 1000 years, and the warmest years of the previous century have occurred within the past decade.

Global Warming - A Challenge!

Global warming poses an extraordinary challenge. The world's leading atmospheric scientists tell us that a gradual warming of our climate is underway and will continue. This long-term warming trend poses serious risks to our economy and our environment. It poses even greater risks to many other nations, particularly poorer countries that will be far less able to cope with a changing climate and low-lying countries where sea level rise will cause significant damage.

Meeting the challenge of global warming will require sustained effort over decades - on the part of governments, who must establish the rules and modify them as we learn more of the science, and as tecchnological solutions begin to manifest themselves; on the part of industry, who must innovate, manufacture, and operate under a new paradigm where climate change will drive many decisions; and on the part of the public, who must also switch to a more climate-friendly path in their purchases and lifestyles. In response to growing scientific understanding, a series of intergovernmental conferences focusing on climate change were held in the late 1980s and early 1990s. In 1990, the Second World Climate Conference called for a framework treaty on climate change. Sponsored by the WMO, UNEP and other international organizations, this conference featured negotiations and ministerial-level discussions among 137 States plusthe European Community.

The final declaration, adopted after hard bargaining, did not specify any international targets for reducing emissions.

These were climate change as a "common concern of humankind", the importance of equity, the "common but differentiated responsibilities" of countries at different levels of development, sustainable development and the precautionary principle - where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, a lack of scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.

Then, in December 1990, the United Nations General Assembly approved the start of treaty negotiations. The Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework Convention on Climate Change (INCIFCCC) met for five sessions between February 1991 and May 1992. Facing a strict deadline - the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in June 1992 - negotiators from 150 countries finalized the Convention In just 15 months. It was adopted in New York on 9 May 1992 and opened for signature several weeks later in Rio.

The new Convention established a process for responding to climate change overthe decades to come. In particular, it set up a system whereby Governments report information on their national greenhouse gas emissions and climate change strategies. This information is reviewed on a regular basis in order to track the Convention's progress. In addition, developed countries agreed to promote the transfer of funding and technology to help developing countries respond to climate change. They were also committed to taking measures aimed at returning their greenhouse gas emissionsto 1990 levels by the year 2000.

The Convention entered into force on 21 March 1994 and today boasts some 165 States Parties.

Climate and Health

Large-scale and global environmental hazards to human health include climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, loss of biodiversity, changes in hydrological systems and the supplies of freshwater, land degradation and stresses on food-producing systems.

Appreciation of this scale and type of influence on human health requires a new perspective which focuses on ecosystems and on the recognition that the foundations of

long-term good health in populations rely in great part on the continued stability and functioning of the biosphere’s life-supporting systems. It also brings an appreciation of the complexity of the systems upon which we depend.

From the tropicsto the arctic, both climate and weather have powerful impacts, both direct and indirect, on human life. While people adapt to the conditions in which they live, and human physiology can handle substantial variation in weather, there are limits.

Marked short-term fluctuations in weather can cause acute adverse health effects:

  •  Extremes of both heat and cold can cause potentially fatal illnesses, e.g. heat stress or hypothermia, as well as increasing death rates from heart and respiratory diseases.
  • In Cities, stagnant weather conditions can trap both warm air and air pollutants - leading to smog episodes with significant health impacts.
  • These effects can be significant. Abnormally high temperatures in Europe in the summer of 2003 were associated with at least 27,000 more deaths than the equivalent period in previous years’.

Other weather extremes, such as heavy rains, floods, and hurricanes, also have severe impacts on health. Approximately 600,000 deaths occurred world-wide as a result of weather-related natural disasters in the 1990s; and some 95% of the sewere in poor countries. Some examples:

  • In October 1999, a cyclone in Orris, India, caused 10,000 deaths. The total number of people affected was estimated at 10-15 million;
  • In December 1999, floods in and around Caracals, Venezuela, killed approximately 30,000 people, many in shanty towns on exposed slopes.

  In addition to changing weather patterns, climatic conditions affect diseases transmitted through water, and via vectors such as mosquitoes. Climate-sensitive diseases are among the largest global killers. Diarrhoea, malaria and protein-energy malnutrition alone caused more than 3.3 million deaths globally in 2002, with 29 % of these deaths occurring in the Region of Africa.

THE SETTING : GLOBAL WARMING About two thirds of solar energy reaching Earth is absorbed by, and heats, the Earth’s surface. The heat radiates back to the atmosphere, where some of it is trapped by greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide. Without this greenhouse effect’ the average surface temperature would make the planet uninhabitable for human populations.

Human activities, particularly burning of fossil fuels, have released over the last 50 years, sufficient quantities of CO2 and other greenhouse gases to affect the global climate. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased by more than 30% since pre-industrial times, trapping more heat in the lower atmosphere.

According to the Third Assessment Report (2001) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), some effects include:

  • The global average surface temperature has increased by 0.6°+0.2° Cover the last century;
  • Globally, 1998 was the warmest year and the 1990s was the warmest decade the on record; 
  • Many areas have experienced increases in rainfall, particularly mid to high latitude countries;
  • In some regions, such as parts of Asia and Africa, the frequency and intensity of droughts have increased in recent decades;
  • Episodes of El Nino have been more frequent, persistent and intense since the mid-1970s compared with the previous 100 years.

Global emissions of carbon dioxide are still increasing. Estimates of future population growth and energy use are used as inputs to global climate models, in order to project future climate change. Reviewing outputs from a range of such models, the IPCC has made the following predictions for the next century:

  • Global mean surface temperature will rise by 1.4°- 5.8° C. Warming will be greatest over land areas, and at high latitudes;
  • The projected rate of warming is greater than anything humans have experienced in the last 10,000 years;
  • The frequency of weather extremes is likely to change leading to an increased risk of floods and droughts. There will be fewer cold spells but more heat waves; 
  • The frequency and intensity of El Nino may be affected;
  • Global mean sea level is projected to rise by 9-88 cm by the year 2100.

Many countries are working to reduce greenhouse gas emissions underthe United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Unfortunately, current international agreements are not sufficient to prevent the world facing significant changes in climate and a rise in sea levels.

THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HEALTH

To a large extent, public health depends on safe drinking water, sufficient food, secure shelter, and good social conditions. A changing climate is likely to affect all of these conditions. Reviews of the likely impacts of climate change by the IPCC suggest that a warming climate is likely to bring some localized benefits, such as decreased winter deaths in temperate climates and increases in food production in some, particularly high latitude, regions.

Public health services and high living standards would protect some populations from specific impacts; for example it is unlikely that climate change would cause malaria to become established in northern Europe or North America. Overall, however, the health effects of a rapidly changing climate are likely to be overwhelmingly negative, particularly in the poorest communities, which have contributed least to greenhouse gas emissions. Some of the health effects include:

  • Increasing frequencies of heat waves: recent analyses show that human-induced climate change significantly increased the likelihood of the European summer heat waveof2003.
  • More variable precipitation patterns are likely to compromise the supply of freshwater, increasing risks of water-borne disease.
  • Rising temperatures and variable precipitation are likely to decrease the production of staple foods in many of the poorest regions, increasing risksof malnutrition.
  • Rising sea levels increase the risk of coastal flooding, and may necessitate population displacement. More than half of the world’s population now lives within 60km of the sea. Some of the most vulnerable regions are the Nile delta in Egypt, the Ganges Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh, and many small islands, such as the Maldives, the Marshall Islands and Tuvalu. 
  • Changes in climate are likely to lengthen the transmission seasons of important vector-borne diseases, and to alter their geographic range, potentially bringing them to regions which lack either population immunity or a strong public health infrastructure.

Measurement of health effects from climate change can only be very approximate. Nevertheless, a WHO quantitative assessment, taking into account only a subset of the possible health impacts, concluded that the effects of the climate change that has occurred since the mid-1970s may have caused over 150,000 deaths in 2000. It also concluded that these impacts are likely to increase in the future.

Global Climate Change: Impacts

Climate affects everything from the flora and fauna which inhabit a region to the heating and cooling requirements of homes and businesses. When climate begins to change, all living things must adapt their lifestyles in order to survive. Global climate change could impact agriculture, ecosystems, forests, sea level, regional weather, human health, and human economics.

Agriculture: Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns may lead to changes in the length of growing seasons and/or the rates of photosynthesis by plants. Such changes could lead to decrease in crop yield. A major cause of global climate change-increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (C02)-may actually cause some plants to grow better.

Ecosystems: Biomes, which are closely related to the temperature and precipitation of a region, may actually change. For example, some forest regions could warm up, dry out, and become deserts. Warmer temperatures in northern latitudes may cause alpine forests to disappear as temperate forests migrate northward into these areas that had previously been too cold for them to survive.

Since ecosystem evolution is generally a slow process, some elements of an ecosystem might have problems adapting to rapid climate change and may not survive. For example, increased ocean temperatures may cause a decline in fisheries.

Sea Level: If increased temperatures cause the polar ice sheets to melt, then sea level will rise as a result of the increased amount of water flowing into the sea. If the sea level rises, there will be more coastal flooding.

Water Availability: Increases in temperature and a decrease in precipitation  may result in increased pressure from people on the ground water supply. People need water for personal use, industrial usage, and agriculture.

Weather:

A warmer atmosphere may create more storms and more extreme weather events due to the increased amount of energy present in the system.

Human Economics: Decreased crop, livestock, and fishery yields, due to increased temperatures and/or decreased precipitation, may lead toeconomic loss for producers.

Future Climates - The Great Uncertainty

Are we seeing the end of the long period of benign climate since the last ice age? Will the climate change for the worse because of our actions? In fact, no one knows for sure. Most atmospheric scientists believe that the global climate is warming at least partially because of a build-up of CO; from fossil fuel use, but what that means to humans and natural ecosystems is largely unknown. The climate is vastly complex and strongly influenced by many factors other than greenhouse gas concentrations. (Some of these factors are explored in the Introduction to Climate Section.) This make it extremely difficult to link any climatic events or characteristics to a single cause. As a result, controversy exists as to the magnitude and danger of global warming induced by greenhouse gases. Many scientists take the issue very seriously and support efforts to slow or reverse the build-up of atmospheric CO2 with the expectation that global warming will slow as a result. Others, however, contend that C02may not be affectingthe climate and that the changes are part of natural, long-term climatic cycles. They suggest that efforts to reduce Co2 emissions are unnecessary and dangerous to economic growth and development. While the controversy rages, researchers around the world continue to gather atmospheric data, develop and refine predictive computer models, and try to reduce the uncertainty in our understanding of the earth’s climate.

Concluding Thoughts

We know that the earth’s climate has changed over time. Throughout the earth’s history, there have been periods of glaciation followed by worming trends in which the glaciers retreated toward higher altitudes and latitudes. Today’s concerns focus on the current and projected rate of climate change based, in large part, on human activities.